THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC TO THE FUTURE OF EUROPE

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By Muhaisin Ibrahim Ahmad 


What do we know?


The first COVID-19 cases were reported in late 2019 in Wuhan, China. As with other coronaviruses (like MERS), many experts thought it probably jumped naturally from animal to human. But scientists haven’t been able to confirm the virus came from an animal. And the Wuhan lab – which has raised safety concerns in the past – also happens to deal with the world’s most dangerous pathogens. Enter, the theory that the virus could have escaped from the lab. Former President Trump got flak for pushing that theory alongside anti-Chinese rhetoric. And earlier this year, the World Health Organization – which has run up against barriers from China in its investigation – concluded the lab theory was “extremely unlikely.” Now, White House officials have suddenly started saying ‘actually, let’s look further into this.’


The EUROPE being an almighty region – the land of high culture, high fashion, delicious food and centuries-spanning history. But with all these and how powerful the 44 countries situated in the region are, the epidemic has by all means shock the region and tested its expertise to handle epidemics.


As the covid-19 pandemic changed the face of the world and showcased the weaknesses of the world sofistication towards facing any universal challenges of that nature, had it been the epidemic has only delapidated the poor African or Asian countries, the world attention and excuse would have been on the inadquacy of modern advancement in health, science and technology to tackle the pandemic, but it has left most of the most powerful regions with lots of death cases and infected of hundred of thousands of individuals in countries like Denmark, ireland, portugal, Spain, Germany, United kingdom, Italy, France.


The pandemic impact has affected the region in all works of life, ranging from education, health, economy, and exposed the inadquacy of science and technology to provide the requested remedy when the forces of the epidemic hit the region hardly more than it hits any other regions in the world. The EUROPE only has almost half of the covid-19 total cases of the world alone, in spite of the giant scientific leaps and the introduction of effective tools. Despite their substantial technological capability, even Europe’s high-income countries have experienced learning losses and increased inequality as a result of the abrupt transition to virtual learning.


These outcomes are likely to be even more acute in middle- and lower-income countries like Ukraine, where there is much less technological capability and a larger share of families live below the poverty line. At the peak of the pandemic, 44 countries in the Europe and Central Asia region closed their schools, affecting 185 million students. Given the abruptness of the situation, teachers and administrations were unprepared for this transition and were forced to build emergency remote learning systems almost immediately.
One of the limitations of emergency remote learning is the lack of personal interaction between teacher and student. With broadcasts, this is simply not possible. However, several countries showed initiative by using other methods to improve the remote educational experience, including social media, email, telephone, and even the post office.


Meanwhile, we have one eye fixed on the future.  The Pan-European Commission on Health and Sustainable Development, chaired by Professor Mario Monti, issued a call to action – to rethink policy priorities in the light of pandemics, to fix the fractures and address the conditions that allowed COVID-19 to happen. This is a concrete step towards making health a centrepiece of society, preparing for future health emergencies and making sure that the notion of health as peripheral is a thing of the past. 


School closures due to COVID-19 have brought significant disruptions to education across Europe. Emerging evidence from some of the region’s highest-income countries indicate that the pandemic is giving rise to learning losses and increases in inequality. To reduce and reverse the long-term negative effects, Ukraine and other less-affluent lower-middle-income countries, which are likely to be even harder hit, need to implement learning recovery programs, protect educational budgets, and prepare for future shocks by “building back better.”


Ukraine also implemented measures to support remote teaching and learning, starting with broadcasting video lessons via television and using online distance learning platforms. Organizations like EdCamp Ukraine organized online professional development and peer-to-peer learning opportunities for teachers to meet remotely and share experiences with online learning during the COVID-19 crisis. Ukraine also conducted information campaigns, such as “Schools, We Are Ready,” together with UNICEF, to inform teachers, administrators, students, and parents about the guidelines for safe and sustained learning under COVID-19 in the 2020–21 school year.


Unfortunately, despite best efforts to set up a supportive remote learning experience, evidence is emerging to show that school closures have resulted in actual learning losses. Research analyzing these outcomes is ongoing, but early results from Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom indicate both learning losses and increases in inequality. Alarmingly, these losses are found to be much higher among students whose parents have less education, a finding reinforced by a study showing that children from socioeconomically advantaged families have received more parental support with their studies during the school closure period.


These emerging data, which provide insights into the region’s highest-income countries, can also be used to predict outcomes in middle-income countries. Despite their substantial technological capability, even Europe’s high-income countries have experienced learning losses and increased inequality as a result of the abrupt transition to virtual learning. These outcomes are likely to be even more acute in middle- and lower-income countries like Ukraine, where there is much less technological capability and a larger share of families live below the poverty line.


Outside the classroom, learning losses may translate into even greater long-term challenges. It has long been known that decreases in test scores are associated with future declines in employment. Conversely, increases in student achievement lead to significant increases in future income, as do additional years of schooling, which are associated with an 8–9 percent gain in lifetime earnings. In the absence of any intervention, the learning losses arising from the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to have a long-term compounding negative effect on many children’s future well-being. These learning losses could translate into less access to higher education, lower labor market participation, and lower future earnings.


To mitigate these challenges while also building a more resilient system that can withstand future crises, An Article published on the site of World Bank has made three core recommendations for Ukraine and other countries: implementing learning recovery programs, protecting education budgets, and preparing for future shocks.


1. Implement learning recovery programs. Most immediately, governments must ensure that students who have fallen behind receive the support that they need to catch up to expected learning targets. The first step must be to carry out just-in-time assessments to identify these students and their support needs. Research has shown that 12-week programs of tutoring can help students make the kind of progress that would be expected from three to five months of normal schooling. In Italy, middle school students who received three hours of online tutoring a week via a computer, tablet, or smartphone saw a 4.7 percent boost in their performance in math, English, and Italian.
2. Protect the education budget. Given the significant financial strain that economies have been under during the pandemic, some countries may face government budget cuts that could jeopardize the gains that have been made in recent years in terms of access to education and improved learning outcomes. 
3. Prepare for future shocks by building back better. It is imperative that we not only recover from the pandemic but that we use this experience to become better prepared for future crises.


Muhaisinibrahim@gmail.com